About why I decided to start long-term writing today, I actually thought about it a long time ago and wanted to do it, but I only decided to implement it today. On the one hand, it's because I used to think more and do less, and on the other hand, I used to naively believe that writing skills were not important... But recently, I have realized the value and productivity of writing, so today, on May 23, 2023, in Shanghai, I have decided to write long-term, which means approximately 5 to 10 years.
First, regarding why writing is important, I want to mention a concept I learned recently from a book called "Post-Capitalist World": knowledge is something recorded in media that can progress over time.
There are two aspects to this:
- Recorded in media
- Can progress over time
Being recorded in media is important because it allows human knowledge to be passed down across time and space. For example, we can now read ancient poems from 2000 years ago, such as "Li Sao," and we can still learn about the history of the past one or two thousand years through historical books. This is something other animals don't have, and it is why humans have become the dominant species on this planet. Humans can quickly acquire knowledge from the past few thousand years through the ability to read, reaching the pinnacle of human knowledge.
In reality, a person can reach the level of a doctoral degree with just 20 years of education, which represents the peak of knowledge accumulation in a certain field, enabling the exploration of new knowledge and achieving technological innovation.
So being recorded in media is important, not only for the purpose of recording, but also for the ability to progress over time.
For example, in ancient times, we didn't know that there was oxygen in the air, so we naively believed that air could ignite because of the concept of a combustible substance in the air. However, through chemical experiments, people gradually discovered that the substance in the air that aids combustion is actually oxygen. Therefore, the concept of "combustible substance" should be abandoned. This is an example of knowledge progress.
Both aspects are indispensable: being recorded in media and being able to progress over time.
This is also one of the reasons why I decided to write, because writing can generate knowledge. Firstly, it is recorded in media, and secondly, if someone questions what I have written, I can think and modify my words to achieve progress.
If I can accumulate knowledge through writing, my productivity will increase, and the quality of my thinking will also improve. This is something that AI cannot replace. The founder of Open AI, Sam Altman, said that AI can reduce labor costs to zero. He may be right, but for now, AI can only write things that are considered common. So there are currently many online tutorials that allow people to get what they want by conversing with AI. This is true, if you just want to write things that everyone else is saying, then AI can indeed reduce the labor cost of conforming to popular opinions to zero. However, if you want to write something different, something unique and correct, something that truly reflects your thinking, AI cannot currently replace that. This is also why AI has not been able to replace truly productive authors so far.
As a programmer, my profession tells me that AI is not omnipotent. It can only write very common code. In other words, if you want to write beautiful code that is at least better than 90% of programmers, relying solely on AI is definitely not enough. You need to have accumulated enough code that you have read, rather than saying to AI, "Please write better code." I often converse with AI and understand its limitations. If it is a very personalized program and the description is incomplete, AI cannot be effective. Or if you encounter a problem that others have not encountered, AI will also give irrelevant answers because it lacks relevant input data.
The large language models can give you answers, but you need to discern the answers yourself. Just like programmers, if you use the code given by AI without even looking at it, or even worse, if you don't understand it and use it directly, it means that your skills are the most easily replaceable.
The above points explain why I don't want to use AI tools to prove my ideas, but rather to prove my thoughts, thought process, progress, and knowledge through original writing. In the era of fragile AI, I hope to obtain proof of my existence through blockchain.
In the past six months, AI has been thriving, and even criminals have used it for illegal activities. Yesterday, I saw a news article: a person used AI to change their appearance and defraud acquaintances, with the amount of fraud being one twenty-fifth of a small target. This incident is enough to make people realize the virtual nature of the AI era, and recently, as I watched short videos, I gradually realized that much of the information is useless—it may have been generated by AI, just like my judgment two months ago. The generation speed of information in the AI era is much faster than before, even following an exponential function on a J-shaped graph. In the next ten years, the amount of information generated will be many times greater than that of the past ten years. Therefore, it will become much more important to distinguish useful information and protect our brains, controlling the sources of information input to our brains. Li Xiaolai made a comparison, saying that you pay so much attention to brushing your teeth and taking care of your physical hygiene, but you should also take care of your brain. If you constantly input garbage information, you don't cherish your brain...
Another argument is that in the next twenty years, my judgment is that it will be the crucial twenty years for humanity to move towards the knowledge era, just like the transition from an agricultural society to an industrial society, a critical turning point... So accumulating knowledge through writing is a good self-investment, as well as a refinement and research of my own thoughts.
Another point is that through writing and thinking, I need to organize the information I have read. To transform the information I have read into useful knowledge, I need to become a person who reads every word carefully. This transformation is of great significance to me because reading every word carefully greatly improves the quality of thinking. I will discuss this in detail when I have the opportunity.
In conclusion, here are the reasons why I decided to start long-term writing:
- Writing can create knowledge.
- Self-thought becomes especially important in the AI era.
- Writing is a gateway to the future knowledge era.
- It allows me to read every word carefully.
Lastly, I will write articles to explain these points in detail.